Some citizens of Georgia believe Republican US President will be more beneficial for Georgian foreign policy than his Democratic counterpart. I claim this to be untrue. I don't necessarily argue the Democratic ticket-holder will be better, I just say it is largely irrelevant which party, Republican or Democratic, puts its candidate in the office.
Argument
The final 2012 US presidential debate was refreshingly civil and substantive (maybe it just looked as such after its predecessors turned into mindless bitch-slap fests). Each candidate appeared well-informed on the issues and offered constructive takes on the United States role in International affairs for the foreseeable future. Sure, at times there were aggressive barrages of accusations, particularly from the incumbent, but over the 45 minutes actually spent on to the subject of the debate, two things became abundantly clear - these men have very similar, at times near identical, positions on variety of foreign policy issues and they'll do what they can to steer the country away from getting involved into another regional conflict. At least for the next four years. Romney largely surrendered his campaign rhetoric that Obama made the nation appear weak abroad, at times nearly admitting there wasn't anything beyond what the administration is already doing, he would be able to do. If elected, Romney is unlikely to change the current course. If anything he might even show himself as a passive player on the world stage. Romney has little experience in international politics (saving Olympics doesn't really cut it) and, as a careful businessman, he might simply choose to let the things he doesn't understand drift along. I also believe both men were somewhat sincere in expressing their true intentions regarding foreign policy since they both understand this subject won't be a deal-breaker in November. The ignorance of masses sometimes allows for surprising fragments of honesty in the usual stream of political double-talk.
Since the United States foreign policy is likely to continue as is regardless of the next president, we can look at what's on the table to understand what's coming (unless, of course, some unexpected global development drastically alters the course of event in the World). In no specific order, here's a short list:
1. Ending the war in Afghanistan with some resemblance of saving face
2. Learning how to work with the new forces in middle east emerging after Arab spring
3. Keeping Syrian civil war from erupting into a region-wide nightmare
4. Stabilizing the relationship with Israel
5. Keeping Iranians from getting their hands on Nuclear warheads
6. Counterbalancing Chinese rise in the Global Economy
7. Increasing cooperation with the rising economies of South America
8. Keeping European Union from falling apart - financially, culturally, militarily
9. Adhering to the long standing US military doctrine of being able to conduct two conventional conflicts at the same time
On top of everything there are other nasty difficulties to resolve - keeping gas prices artificially low to avoid public uprising in Bible Belt, out-competing the rest of the World in R&D, curbing job outsourcing, fixing immigration policy and more. And all of this to be achieved with an absurdly partisan Congress with a 7% approval rating.
Where is Georgia in this list? Not in the top ten, I am afraid, probably not even in the top fifty. The relationship with Georgia will be largely shaped by the relationship with Russia. The latter will most likely stay where it is now regardless of who is elected to the office of presidency - we will see more of formal, cool mutual respect with an occasional show of strength. Post-Reset US and Russia are like two 20's style bootleg gangs uneasily tolerating each other in hopes of outliving the rival and taking over their turf. The events unfolding in Syria offered a clear example of what this relationship looks like - US is weary of getting entangled into another regional conflict while Russian Federation carefully flexes its muscle pushing the red line as far as possible. Obama hasn't done much to counter their push and Romney made it clear there is not a single thing he can or will do differently.
International politics is an exercise of assessing realities. Bush-era neoconism is dead. Nobody is resurrecting it. It has done enough damage - US nearly lost its credibility with its longtime allies and allowed countries like Russia and China show little respect in establishing the new "permitted". The time of carrying a police baton is behind us. For Georgia there's not much to do about it other than understand this new geopolitical reality and do as the most cunning player of the game, America, does - speak softly, hide the stick in the robe and wait for the enemy to slip up. We won't beat Russia with tanks or Georgian hospitality Our only chance is to work hard, build a better society and wait for the greedy bear to trap itself.
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