Motion
The argument is often made had the Prison Rape videos been
released earlier, say several months ago, UNM would manage to contain the political
damage and still win the elections. I maintain this argument is false. I don’t
profess GD would necessarily win, I merely maintain it is not given UNM would manage
to contain the damage.
Argument
Public polls done during the summer of 2012 showed UNM had a
lead but GM was getting closer. Some of these polls were probably biased one way or
another but collectively they pointed to a trend.
The electorate in Georgia at the time could have been broken
roughly in 3 camps: GM supporters, UNM supporters and undecided voters. The last
category is of particular interest since it played a crucial role in the end.
The undecided voters had no strong feelings one way or another but would prefer
to see their more-or-less established lifestyle not altered. Let’s call them Status
Quo voters for now.
Since 2007 there have been strong opinions voiced publicly against
UNM. Arguing it had failed to uphold the Rule of Law for all. While many
suffered legal prosecution, there formed a selected circle around the President,
which grew increasingly reckless over the years, at times acting with virtual impudence.
The ruler, the voices claimed, has forgotten his promise to bring Justice to
the ruled. He acted as Demosthenes outwardly but truly he was Nero growing drunk
with power with each passing day. These voices grew louder and at times credence was given by some well-respected members of the Government itself (e.g. Irakly Alasania). To be clear I am not claiming these rumors were justified (Justice
should be established in the Court of Law, not on political blogs), I merely
point out the voices were there.
One such particularly disturbing story circulating around
(call it a political rumor if you will) was about Bacho Akhalaia – there were
talks of him torturing prisoners, including political opponents or rich
businessmen, ruthlessly, at times beating them to death. On the political arena
Bacho was the latest favorite of the President, having run the Penitentiary System
for long and recently made the Minister of Interior affairs, arguably the most influential
ministerial post in Georgia.
What did Status Quo voters thought about these rumors? In some
ways they preferred to downplay them for as long as there was no hard evidence.
The reasoning was simple – most people will tolerate for their friends and neighbors
to be taken to undisclosed destinations at night hoping nobody will come for them.
I have talked to this lot quite a bit, some even admitted the country had turned
into a police state but as long as it was possible to wait out, as long as
things didn’t get worse, as long as the progress made by UNM in its early years
could be maintained they were willing to sacrifice… their friends and neighbors
and fellow men. Such is human nature. They would vote for UNM for they hoped
the rumors were just rumors or exaggerations or were simply an ugliness which
would come to pass.
The videos offered an undeniable truth these rumors were not
just rumors. They were an indisputable truth staring in the face of every
Status Quo voter that at least one of these rumors (about the prison abuses)
was true. And the truth was ugly, very ugly. This realization tore off the fragile
veil so laboriously dressed around the ugly truth. It snowballed quickly
- if this one was true, possibly the ugliest of them all, what about the other
ones? Was the system really as tarnished as The Voices claimed? Was it really
beyond repair? Was the day of reckoning much closer then they feared? I believe
this realization is what truly shocked most people - the problem was real and
was not going to fix itself. If left unchecked it could destroy the one thing these
voters cared for the most – Status Quo.
Georgian citizens are not such naive fools to assume prison
is a nice place. Those who take them for such fools should have their arrogance
levels checked. People were shocked by the realization their hard-earned peace
of mind was in peril. This is what tipped the scales. I doubt it would just subside
by some skilled PR campaign, had it come earlier. The fear of losing this uneasily achieved
comfort is too primordial. In fact it might have grown stronger over time, evolving
into something somber and dangerous since no relief path would have been offered.
I will finish with a quote from Irakly Khaburdzania: “The
tapes blew the fuse, but the fuse was put there by UNM in the first place”. His
full article and follow up discussion can be found here.
Giorgi, I disagree with your point (at least with the one in the title). I, too, do not profess that if the tapes had appeared 6 months before the elections UNM would have necessarily won – but it is my opinion, that the likelihood of their victory would have been significant (probably higher than that of GD). Here is why:
ReplyDelete1. The tapes sparked popular outrage which led to a significant protest movement right before the elections. If you remember, there were student and other demonstrations almost every day. This level of intensity undoubtedly had a significant effect on the “undecided” voters (energizing likely GD voters and discouraging likely UNM voters) at least in Tbilisi. However, this level of intensity would be nearly impossible to maintain for a prolonged period of time. The demonstrations would have died down within a month or so and GD would have lost at least some part of the momentum that they got from the demonstrations
2. Within the 2 week timeframe many people did not have enough time to process the tapes. In the first few days after the tapes had been released, I wasn’t sure myself whether I’d want to vote for UNM – at the very least, I could have not voted at all. But as time passed, my emotions subsided and I started to see things in perspective again. I am sure many other people had similar experience – and I am sure there are people for whom this “calming” period would have taken more than 2 weeks (especially in Georgia, where the environment was much more intense)
3. Government response had almost marginal effect over the 2 weeks (or actually less than 2 weeks, as they took a while to respond) – people didn’t have the time either to process it, or to see any benefits of it. It is more than likely that with the swift actions that were undertaken by the government would have been able to improve the prison situation significantly over a 6 months period. This could have actually convinced some people that given enough pressure UNM can “right its wrongs” – giving them additional votes
4. Within 6 months there would have been more time to conduct a proper investigation of this specific incident (which was pretty much impossible within 2 weeks). It seems, that while the tapes were real, at least some of them were “directed.” If this were to be confirmed, this would definitely soften the blow and return some of the voters back to UNM
Overall, it usually is the case that when people are shocked by something like these videos the effect wears off with time – especially if the government’s response is adequate. One of the rumors I heard is that according to an internal poll done by UNM within days of the release of the tapes their rating was around 25%. If this is accurate, within a little over a week their rating bounced back to 40%. This is a rumor, so I cannot claim validity, but intuitively this makes sense to me. And, if they had 6 months, it is very likely that they would have gained another 5% - 10% of the votes which would have put them in the majority.